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首先分析了公路货运量预测的重要性,介绍了国内外主要预测方法。归纳总结了支持向量机的核心思想和基本原理,利用此较新的理论建立了公路货运量预测模型,给出了构建模型的具体分析步骤,同时探讨了参数的标定和修正过程。利用北京市基础数据,建立北京市公路货运量预测的支持向量机模型,并应用LibSVM软件进行预测,预测结果验证了模型的有效性和可行性,表明方法可以推广并可实际应用。
Firstly, the importance of highway freight volume forecast is analyzed, and the main forecast methods at home and abroad are introduced. Summarizes the core ideas and basic principles of SVM. By using this new theory, the forecast model of highway freight volume is set up. The concrete steps of building the model are given. The calibration and correction of parameters are also discussed. Based on the basic data of Beijing, the support vector machine model of Beijing highway freight volume forecast is established, and the prediction is made by LibSVM software. The prediction results verify the validity and feasibility of the model, which shows that the method can be generalized and practically applied.