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为了解龙川江流域上游地区河流泥沙输移变化特征及影响因素,基于金沙江一级支流龙川江上游地区1970~2012年的逐月输沙量、径流量和降雨量等数据,采用均差累积曲线、Yamamot检验和小波神经网络耦合模型等方法,探讨了该区输沙量变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明,龙川江上游输沙量年内分配极其不均匀,主要集中在5~11月,尤其是7~9月集中了全年输沙量的近70%;40多年来,研究区河流输沙量变化可以分为三个阶段,1970~1984年为减少阶段,1985~2002年为增加阶段,2003~2012年为减少阶段;气候变化是龙川江流域上游年均输沙量变化的主要控制因素,而人类活动的贡献率相对较小,但越来越显著。研究结果为该区水电建设等提供了理论依据。
In order to understand the characteristics and influencing factors of sediment transport in the upstream of Longchuanjiang River, based on the data of monthly sediment discharge, runoff and rainfall from the upstream of Longchuan River in Jinsha River from 1970 to 2012, Cumulative curve, Yamamot test and wavelet neural network coupled model and other methods to explore the characteristics of sediment load changes and its influencing factors. The results show that the distribution of sediment load in the upper reaches of the Longchuan River is extremely uneven during the year, mainly concentrated in the period from May to November, especially from July to September. Nearly 70% of the annual sediment discharge is concentrated. For more than 40 years, The amount of change can be divided into three stages, from 1970 to 1984 for the reduction phase, from 1985 to 2002 for the increase phase, from 2003 to 2012 for the reduction phase; climate change is the Longchuanjiang upstream upper annual average sediment concentration changes in the main control factors , While the contribution of human activities is relatively small, but more and more significant. The results provide a theoretical basis for the hydropower construction in this area.