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目的分析中国传染病自动预警系统(CIDARS)在肇庆市的运行情况。方法对肇庆市2008-2014年移动百分位数法预警相关病种的信号数、信号响应率、响应时间、信号核实方式及响应结果等内容进行描述性分析,使用及时性、灵敏度和错误预警率评价预警系统效果,并比较2010年12月10日预警阈值调整前后的预警效果。结果 2008-2014年,肇庆市传染病自动预警系统共发出5 708条预警信号,预警信号响应率为100.00%;预警信号以其它感染性腹泻病(2 460条,占43.10%)、流行性腮腺炎(1 453条,占24.56%)、流感(664条,占11.63%)为主;共有3种传染病的11条预警信号被判断为疑似事件;预警系统及时性为6 d、灵敏度为53.85%、错误预警率为87.43%。预警系统阈值调整后,错误预警率从96.52%下降至90.91%,其他感染性腹泻、痢疾、伤寒和副伤寒、乙脑、急性出血性结膜炎5种传染病的错误预警率有所下降。结论肇庆市传染病自动预警系统能够正常运行,预警信号能够及时响应,但预警系统的预警效果有待进一步提高。
Objective To analyze the operation of CIDARS in Zhaoqing City. Methods A descriptive analysis was carried out on the number of signals, signal response rate, response time, signal verification methods and response results of the mobile percentile early warning related diseases in Zhaoqing City from 2008 to 2014, using timeliness, sensitivity and error warning Rate early warning system effect, and compare the pre-warning effect before and after December 10, 2010 warning threshold adjustment. Results From 2008 to 2014, a total of 5 708 early-warning signals were sent out in Zhaoqing City, and the response rate of early warning signals was 100.00%. Early warning signals included other infectious diarrhea (2 460 articles, 43.10%), epidemic parotid gland (1 453, accounting for 24.56%) and influenza (664, accounting for 11.63%). 11 early warning signals of 3 kinds of infectious diseases were judged as suspected events; the timeliness of early warning system was 6 days and the sensitivity was 53.85 %, False alarm rate was 87.43%. After pre-alarm system threshold adjustment, the false alarm rate dropped from 96.52% to 90.91%, and the false alarm rates of other infectious diarrhea, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid, JE and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis decreased. Conclusion The automatic early warning system for infectious diseases in Zhaoqing can operate normally and the early warning signal can respond promptly, but the warning effect of early warning system needs to be further improved.