我国经济基本面正在发生深刻变化,中长期潜在增长率已开始逐步下降,经济增速将由过去年均10%左右的高速增长阶段,转入平均7%左右的中速增长阶段。我国增长阶段的转换,是由快速追赶期后的增长逐步自然回落的中长期趋势因素主导,加上需求周期波动的短期因素和落入“中等收入陷阱”的风险因素共同作用使然。既不完全等同于发达国家经济成熟时的放缓,也区别于落入“中等收入陷阱”国家的停滞,当前我国经济下行具有混合特征。只要有效消除体制障碍,避免系统性风险爆发,就有条件形成经济增长的新动力和国际竞争的新优势。 The fundamentals of our economy are undergoing profound changes. The potential medium- and long-term growth rates have begun to gradually decline. The economic growth will shift from an average annual growth rate of about 10% to an average growth rate of about 7%. The conversion of China’s growth stage is dominated by medium- and long-term trend factors of gradual natural decline after rapid catching-up growth. Coupled with the short-term factors of demand cycle volatility and the risk factors falling into the “middle-income trap” Neither is it completely equivalent to the slowdown of the developed countries when the economy matures, but also to the stagnation of the countries falling into the “middle income trap”. At present, the economic downturn in our country is characterized by a mixture of features. As long as the institutional obstacles are effectively eliminated and the outbreak of systemic risks is avoided, the new impetus for economic growth and the new advantages of international competition will be conditioned on conditions.