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目的:为了进一步了解儿童乳牙龋病活性与口腔变形链球菌和乳酸杆菌(s.mutans、s.sobrinus)数更精确的量化关系,尝试建立新的可行的基于唾液s.mutans、s.sobrinus定量值的儿童龋病Logistic预测模型。方法:建立s.mutans、s.sobrinus的定量检测方法-FQ PCR法,对203名3～5岁儿童进行龋病调查,同时采用FQ PCR方法检测其口腔唾液s.mutans、s.sobrinus数量。6个月后回访检查,根据调查结果建立儿童龋病Logistic回归分析模型,对儿童龋病危险性进行评估分析。结果:3～5岁儿童患龋率和s.mutans、s.sobrinus检出率都随年龄的增加而上升;龋病组和龋活跃组唾液s.mutans、s.sobrinus检出率、数量明显高于健康组和龋不活跃组;本实验选择相关性最好的3个指标(唾液s.mutans、s.sobrinus计数对数值、龋失补牙面数)建立的儿童龋病Logistic回归模型的特异性为92.78%,灵敏性为81.52%,总体正确率达89.24%,显示了很好的预测效果。结论:基于FQ PCR构建的儿童龋病预测模型,预测准确率、特异性、灵敏性均优于其它预测模型,显示了较好的临床实用性。
OBJECTIVE: In order to further understand the quantitative relationship between caries activity in children with dental caries and S. oralis and s.sobrinus, we try to establish a new viable s.mutans-based s.sobrinus quantification Value of Logistic Prediction Model of Caries in Children. Methods: To establish a quantitative detection method of s.mutans and s.sobrinus-FQ PCR method to investigate the caries of 203 children aged 3 to 5 years and to detect the oral salivary s.mutans, s.sobrinus quantity by FQ PCR. Six months after the visit inspection, according to the results of the establishment of children’s caries Logistic regression model analysis of children’s caries risk assessment. Results: The prevalence of caries and the detection rate of s.mutans and s.sobrinus in children aged 3 ~ 5 years increased with the increasing of age. The detection rate of saliva s.mutans and s.sobrinus in caries group and caries active group was obviously Higher than the healthy group and caries-less active group. In this experiment, we selected the best three indicators (saliva s.mutans, s.sobrinus count logarithm, caries loss tooth surface number) to establish a specific model of children’s caries Logistic regression model The sensitivity was 81.52% and the overall correct rate was 89.24%, showing a good predictive effect. Conclusion: The predictive accuracy, specificity and sensitivity of caries prediction model based on FQ PCR are superior to other prediction models and show good clinical practicability.