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空域资源是民航业的关键资源,该文运用1980-2014年的数据研究了空域资源、民航收入与国民经济的关系,发现当航空里程增加到一定程度后,民航收入的增加将会遭遇“天花板”。通过协整分析和格兰杰因果检验,发现航空里程与国民收入之间呈现正向的长期协整关系及单向的格兰杰因果关系,国民收入增长带动航空里程的增长。通过投入产出表法测算,虽然航空里程对于国民收入增长弹性不大,但民航业对国民经济其他行业拉动作用显著。
Airspace resources are the key resources of the civil aviation industry. Based on the data from 1980 to 2014, the paper studies the relationship between airspace resources and civil aviation revenues and the national economy. It is found that when the aviation mileage increases to a certain extent, the increase of civil aviation revenue will encounter “ ceiling”. Through cointegration analysis and Granger causality test, it is found that there is a positive long-term co-integration relationship and a one-way Granger causality between aviation mileage and national income, and the growth of national revenue leads to the growth of aviation mileage. According to the input-output table, although aviation mileage is not very flexible for the growth of national income, the civil aviation industry plays a significant role in boosting other industries in the national economy.