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张家界旅游业发达,吸引着众多的国内外游客,然而客流量年内变化较大,主要受气候舒适度的影响。本文结合近3年入境旅游和国内旅游客流量的年内变化,计算了客流量月指数并划分了旅游活动的淡旺季;利用1971年—2000年气候资料,对张家界市旅游气候舒适性进行了评价,划分了旅游活动的适宜性等级和时段分布;在对气候舒适度与若干虚拟因子数值化的基础上,采用OLS方法建立了客流量月指数与气候舒适度的相关性,结果显示:①入境游客年内变化主要受气候影响,入境旅游月指数气候弹性系数1.7382%;②国内旅游不仅受气候舒适性影响,还受7月—8月暑假以及“五·一黄金周”、“十·一黄金周”的影响,客流量月指数气候弹性系数为1.9297%。本项研究,为张家界市客流量年内变化预测、旅游地开发、景区管理提供了科学依据。
Zhangjiajie developed tourism, attracting a large number of domestic and foreign tourists, however, passenger volume changes during the year, mainly due to climate comfort. Based on the changes of inbound tourism and domestic tourism in the recent three years, this paper calculates the monthly index of passenger flow and divides the light and peak season of tourism activity. Based on the climatic data from 1971 to 2000, the tourism climate comfort of Zhangjiajie City is evaluated Based on the quantification of climate comfort and some virtual factors, the OLS method was used to establish the correlation between monthly index and climatic comfort. The results showed that: (1) immigration The changes of tourists during the year are mainly affected by the climate, and the monthly coefficient of climate elasticity of inbound tourism is 1.7382%. ② Domestic tourism is affected not only by the climate comfort but also by the summer holidays of July-August and the “May-Golden Week” · One Golden Week ", the monthly elasticity index of passenger flow index is 1.9297%. This study provides a scientific basis for predicting the change of passenger flow in Zhangjiajie during the year, developing tourism destinations and managing scenic spots.