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目的探讨口岸出入境人员传染病随时间变化规律,为制订传染病防控规划提供科学依据。方法收集2000～2006年全国口岸出入境人员体检资料,采用指数曲线拟合,建立预测模型。结果建立的指数曲线预测模型lg(?)=0.90756+0.11469x,经方差分析,F=148.62126,P<0.01,回归系数有非常显著性意义,模型成立,显著有效。经相关指数分析,R2=0.97379,曲线拟合度甚佳。各年度口岸出入境人员体检检出的传染病实际值与预测值基本吻合,相对误差平均值仅0.0194,显示模型预测效果良好,预测值可信。结论建立的指数曲线拟合预测模型,不仅可作口岸出入境人员传染病近期预测,还可以进行远期预测,并有助于开发新的工作领域。
Objective To explore the regularity of infectious diseases of exit-entry persons at the port over time and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control plan of infectious diseases. Methods The physical examination data of entry and exit personnel at national ports from 2000 to 2006 were collected and fitted with exponential curve to establish the prediction model. The result shows that the regression model lg (?) = 0.90756 + 0.11469x, the variance analysis, F = 148.62126, P <0.01, the regression coefficient has a very significant significance, the model is established, significant and effective. The correlation index analysis, R2 = 0.97379, curve fitting degree is very good. The actual value of infectious diseases detected by physical examination of entry and exit persons in each year is basically consistent with the predicted value, the average relative error is only 0.0194, which shows that the predicted effect of the model is good and the forecast value is credible. Conclusion The exponential curve fitting forecasting model established can not only predict the recent epidemic of entry-exit personnel in ports, but also make long-term prediction and help to develop new fields of work.