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地球同步轨道区域充满能量高达MeV的高能电子,其对航天器威胁极大.电子微分通量预报有助于及时有效地预警高能电子事件,降低高能电子对航天器造成的危害.本文以此为背景提出了一种基于经验正交函数(EOF)方法的地球同步轨道相对论电子微分通量预报模型.该模型利用太阳风参数及地磁指数拟合后一天的电子通量EOF系数,结合EOF基函数给出后一天中大于2 MeV电子微分通量预报.对2003年1月至2006年6月的样本测试结果表明,该模型可以重构出电子微分通量的真实变化,给出较好的5 min微分通量预报,其平均预报效率达到67%左右.
The geosynchronous orbit region is filled with energetic electrons with energy up to MeV, which poses a great threat to spacecraft.The prediction of electron differential flux helps to timely and effectively warn the high-energy electronic events and reduce the harm caused by high-energy electrons to the spacecraft.In this paper, Abstract A new model of geo-orbit relativistic electron differential flux forecasting based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) is proposed in this paper. The model uses the EOF coefficient of the electron flux of the day after fitting the solar wind parameters and the geomagnetic index, The results show that the model can reconstruct the real change of electron differential flux and give a good 5 min Differential flux forecast, the average forecast efficiency of about 67%.