论文部分内容阅读
运用时间序列分析法对四川省出生人口建立非平稳时间序列模型和回归模型的组合模型,对高中毛入学率建立Logistic生长曲线复合模型,进而对2010-2020年的中小学在校学生人数及教师需求量进行预测。结果显示四川省未来10年中小学在校生数将会减少542万余人,小学教师逐渐超标,高中教师严重不足。高等师范院校近两年可以按5%左右的比例扩大招生,重点培养高中教师。
Time series analysis was used to establish a combined model of non-stationary time series and regression models for the birth population in Sichuan Province. Logistic growth curve composite model was established for gross enrollment rate of high school students, and then the number of schoolchildren and teachers in primary and middle schools in 2010-2020 Demand forecast. The results show that the number of students in primary and secondary schools in Sichuan Province will decrease by 5.42 million in the next 10 years, the number of primary school teachers will gradually exceed the standard, and the number of high school teachers will be seriously insufficient. In the past two years, higher normal colleges and universities could expand enrollment at a ratio of about 5% and focus on training high school teachers.