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为实现货运结构总体区域优化,运用灰色系统理论中的改进相对关联分析法,以珠三角地区货运结构为研究对象进行了实证研究,建立了各种货运方式的货物周转量与相关影响因素之间的改进相对关联度矩阵,对货运结构系统特征及其相关影响因素作了优势分析。研究结果表明:在珠三角地区,人均GDP序列与货运结构序列的改进相对关联度最大,其次是第一、第三产业产值序列,第二产业产值序列与之的改进相对关联度最小;货运结构不合理,公路和民航货运结构序列分别与相关影响因素序列相对于始点的变化速率接近程度最大,而水路、铁路货运结构序列分别与其变化速率接近程度很小,其技术经济优势没有得到充分发挥。为减轻公路货运压力,应充分利用珠江和沿海水运资源,同时加快铁路建设,政府的货运政策应向扶持水路和铁路货运倾斜。
In order to realize the overall regional optimization of freight transport structure, an improved relative relativity analysis method in gray system theory and an empirical study on freight transport structure in the Pearl River Delta Region are carried out. The relationship between the freight turnover of various cargo modes and related influencing factors The improved relative degree of correlation matrix, the characteristics of freight transport system and its related influencing factors were analyzed. The results show that in the Pearl River Delta region, the per capita GDP sequence has the highest relative degree of correlation with the freight structure sequence improvement, followed by the first and the third industry output value series, and the second industry output sequence with the relative least degree of relative improvement. The freight structure Unreasonable, the sequence of freight structure of highway and civil aviation is respectively close to the rate of change of the sequence of relevant influencing factors relative to the starting point. However, the sequence of waterway and railway freight structure is very close to its rate of change, and its technical and economic advantages are not fully exerted. In order to alleviate the pressure on highway freight transportation, we should make full use of the Pearl River and coastal water transportation resources and at the same time speed up the construction of the railway. The government’s freight transportation policy should tilt to support waterway and railway freight transportation.