论文部分内容阅读
房地产和银行作为我国国民经济的两个极其重要的行业,它们二者之间的联动反应关系着中国经济的持续健康发展。通常采用传统的线性相关分析工具研究房地产部门和银行部门之间的关联性和系统性风险溢出效应,但是具有一定的局限性,在此基础上运用较为先进的GARCH—时变Copula—Co VaR技术进行优化,可以看出中国房地产部门与银行部门之间的关联程度以及风险溢出具有动态时变特征,并且在各个时期内,房地产部门与银行部门之间的风险溢出具有非对称特征。预防和降低房地产市场价格波动对于银行部门以及整个金融系统的系统性风险溢出效应应当从三个方面着手:首先,密切关注房地产价格走势以及带来的潜在风险;其次,应当对不同地区以及不同类型的商品房屋实行有差异的信贷投向和政策倾斜,有效监控和防范房地产市场风险对银行部门的扩散传染以及风险的跨地域、跨市场传播;最后,建立有效且全面的相关数据信息协调处理机制。
As the two most important industries in China’s national economy, real estate and banks are the two most important industries. The interaction between the two is related to the sustained and healthy development of China’s economy. The traditional linear correlation analysis tools are usually used to study the correlation between the real estate sector and the banking sector and the systemic risk spillover effect, but with some limitations. Based on this, the more advanced GARCH-time-varying Copula-Co VaR Optimizing, it can be seen that the correlation between real estate sector and banking sector in China has dynamic and time-varying characteristics, and the risk spillover between real estate sector and banking sector has asymmetric characteristics in various periods. Prevent and reduce the real estate market price fluctuations For the banking sector and the entire financial system, the systemic risk spillover effects should start from three aspects: First, pay close attention to the real estate price movements and the potential risks; Second, should be different regions and different types Of the commercial housing implementation of different credit orientation and policy preferences, effectively monitor and prevent the spread of real estate market risk spread to the banking sector and cross-regional and cross-market risk spread; Finally, the establishment of effective and comprehensive coordination of data and information processing mechanism.