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本文运用1981～2005年的投入产出时间序列数据,根据KL-EMS框架,采用超越对数生产成本函数建立了中国跨时优化一般均衡模型(CNI-GEM)。在此基础上,研究了国际石油价格变化对中国石油与其他能源投入要素之间的替代以及对国民经济总体和各部门经济的影响。结果表明:1980～2005年各部门的石油与其他能源产品之间的平均Morishima替代弹性均为正;国际油价对GDP、CPI以及各部门产出价格有一定影响,而且具有时间滞后效应。
Based on the KL-EMS framework, this paper uses the time-series data of input-output from 1981 to 2005 to establish China Cross-Optimization Equilibrium Model (CNI-GEM) by using the cost function of transgressive production cost. On this basis, we study the substitution between the international oil price changes and the elements of China’s oil and other energy inputs, and the impact on the overall national economy and the economy of various departments. The results show that the average Morishima substitution elasticity between oil and other energy products is positive in all sectors from 1980 to 2005. International oil prices have an impact on GDP, CPI and the output prices of various sectors, and have a time lag effect.