Run by History or Guided by the Future

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  On September 9th we en- tered an airplane in Vienna that would bring us via Beijing to Seoul, the dynamic capital of Korea. The airline, Austrian, is well known for the delicate meals prepared by a famous caterer. Starters were served and we could choose among several salads and sea food dishes. Our choice was marinated shrimp and fish carpaccio. Dishes in harmony with what we would be dealing with in the next days. We were on our way to give the key note speech at the 7th World Ocean Forum in Seoul.
  We are not marine scientists, but we know that we are all affected by the future of our oceans. International organizations, local governments, scientific institutions and global business are involved and must work together when it comes finding a balance among economic interests and environmental considerations.
  Oceans are covering 71 percent of our globe. Ocean industry has a significant share in the GDP of the Far East region of Asia. To about a billion people at the bottom of the social ladder fish delivers the primary nutrition. Oceans are polluted and overfished and it is not only one nation that can be blamed. We are sitting in one boat that is drifting rudderless in oceans without borders. On board is a time bomb of social conflicts.
  Looking at the map, opportunities and risks are shared by China, Korea and Japan. China’s coastline is more than 14,000 km, South Korea’s 2,400 and Japan’s coastline is almost 30,000 km long. All three countries are connected through the western Pacific Ocean.
  The focus of the 7th World Ocean Forum 2013 was on this North East Asian Rim, one of the most important economic regions of the world. The wide range of issues covered fisheries, offshore plants, coastal and marine environment, shipping and shipbuilding finance, marine science and education. Media attention on maritime issues has been meager. We can only hope that the efforts of the Forum will not only lead to a stronger awareness, but also to an implementation of insights, as Craig N. McLean, the representative of the US National and Atmospheric Administration said he was hoping for in his closing remarks.
  Despite the economic importance there has been a lack of cooperation among China, Korea and Japan. Historical factors and conflicts are hurdles to the construction of regional coop- eration mechanisms. Different views of history often feed into a rising sentiment and growing nationalism. Prof. Seoung-Young Hong, Co-Chairman of the World Ocean Forum, thinks that even though “Northeast Asian countries are facing a turbulent economic situation, it is not easy to cooperate due to geopolitical conditions. The so-called ‘Northeast Asian Paradox’is that historical political and military considerations win out over economic interests.”   In the mix of international relations and local considerations political posturing plays a large role on both sides of the pacific. While the world is witness to a declining importance of the West, in a speech to the Australian House of Representatives US President Barack Obama left no doubt he wants to strengthen America’s military presence in the Asia-Pacific region:“The United States is a Pacific power, and we are here to stay.”


  At the same time in the awakening of a new self confidence and self determination of China and Asia, China’s President Xi Jinping said that he wants to “build China into a maritime power”and underscored the very important role oceans and seas have in the country’s economic development and com-petitiveness. In an earlier report the Chinese government called for more efforts to exploit marine resources, protect the marine environment and safeguard the country’s maritime rights and interests.
  It is the larger political context in which whatever takes place in the North East Asian Rim is embedded. It is not happening in a vacuum – or in a static world. It must be dealt with in a world that itself is changing dramatically. The task of the 21st century is to find a balance between the challenges and opportunities of the globalization of our economies and the needs and demands of national politics and priorities. It is to find a balance between economic interests and exploitation of the environment, and to reposition countries and their roles among a growing share of emerging nations in the global economy.
  In changing global trade streams, the new “Arctic shipping” route from Dalian in Northeastern China to Rotterdam through the Arctic Ocean could play an important role. Sino Ship magazine even believes it could change the face of world trade. And it was the Chinese who two weeks ago sent a cargo ship on its first commercial transit through this Northeast Passage on the Arctic Ocean above Russia. The route could also help to develop coastal cities along the route and melt some political ice on the almost 2,500 km coastal line of North Korea. But despite all enthusiasm the economic value is still small, the navigable period short and the infrastructure along the route incomplete.
  China, Korea and Japan are the most critical players in North East Asian cooperation. Whether it is economic or environmental considerations, the path to follow is gradual improvement by starting with the least complicated arrangements. Northeast Asian countries share the need to achieve sustainable growth and to build an economic community in the region that will strengthen all countries in their global positioning. Increasingly, interdependence and close economic ties are the common ground on which to build comprehensive regional cooperation. Whether economic pragmatism or ideological considerations will win, time will reveal. Before we left Seoul we had the pleasure to enjoy the tastes of Korean food, fish of course was an indispensible part. Together with JaeChul Kim, Seoung-Young Hong and their charming wives we toasted to the slogan of the Forum “Oceans of Opportunities beyond Waves of changes.”
  China, Korea and Japan can allow history to run them, or they can open up and let the future guide them – it is their choice.
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