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本文应用基于期权思想的方法对地方政府债务可承受水平进行了测度。首先,定义可偿债资金的计算方法并对其中的地方政府可支配财力和刚性支出进行了计算;其次,应用Bootstrap抽样、核密度估计等方法绘制出可偿债资金的概率分布,根据给定违约概率确定出地方政府债务的理论年金值;最后,在给定利率水平和债务期限的条件下确定了地方政府债务可承受水平的上限,并将这一值与地方政府现实债务水平进行了对比。实证结果表明:在假定1%违约概率的条件下,30个省、市、自治区中,地方政府债务可承受水平超过现实债务值有15个,大部分集中在中西部省份。
This paper uses the method based on option theory to measure the affordability of local government debt. First of all, the paper defines the method of calculating solvency and calculates the disposable financial resources and rigid expenditures of local government. Secondly, the probability distribution of solvency funds is drawn by Bootstrap sampling and nuclear density estimation. According to the given The probability of default determines the theoretical annuity value of local government debt. Finally, the ceiling of local government debt affordability is given given the interest rate level and debt maturity, and this value is compared with the actual debt level of local government . The empirical results show that under the assumption of a probability of 1% default, among the 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, the affordability of local government debt exceeds the actual debt value by 15, most of which are concentrated in central and western provinces.