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目的探讨山西省运城地区流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)发病率与气象因子之间的关系。方法收集2000-2009年7-9月运城地区乙脑发病率及同期气象资料,用SPSS17.0软件分析两者相关性,并用逐步回归分析建立乙脑发病率的气象因子拟合模型。结果运城地区乙脑病例多在6月开始出现,7月增多,8月达到高峰,9月减少,10月偶有发生。乙脑发病率与月平均温度、月平均气压等相关,与月温差、月日照、相对湿度、月降雨量无关。逐步回归分析得出乙脑发病率的气压回归方程,ap1(提前1个月的平均气压)有良好的拟合效果。结论气象因子对乙脑发病有重要影响,可以利用气压拟合模型预测乙脑发病率变化趋势。
Objective To explore the relationship between the incidence of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and meteorological factors in Yuncheng area of Shanxi Province. Methods The incidence and prevalence of Japanese encephalitis in Yuncheng from July to September in 2000-2009 were collected. The correlation between the incidence of Japanese encephalitis and meteorological data in the same period was analyzed by SPSS17.0 software. The meteorological factor fitting model of incidence of Japanese encephalitis was established by stepwise regression analysis. Results Most cases of Japanese encephalitis in Yuncheng started to appear in June, increased in July, peaked in August, decreased in September, and occasionally occurred in October. The incidence of Japanese encephalitis is related to monthly average temperature and monthly mean air pressure, and has no correlation with monthly temperature difference, monthly sunshine, relative humidity and monthly rainfall. Stepwise regression analysis showed that the incidence of Japanese encephalitis air pressure regression equation, ap1 (average pressure one month earlier) have a good fitting effect. Conclusion The meteorological factors have an important influence on the pathogenesis of Japanese encephalitis. The atmospheric pressure fitting model can be used to predict the incidence of Japanese encephalitis.