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“十二五”期间人民币很可能保持持续升值的态势,增长、通胀和内需都或将面临压力,因此制定化解升值风险、保障国家经济安全的政策显得十分必要。本文基于动态8区域CGE模型和自主开发的DMCGE-C政策模拟系统,通过模拟分析3种典型的人民币升值情景发现,即使在不包含中国进出口定价权的“最坏情况”下,升值和“涨工资”同时运行的组合政策也可以显著对冲单一升值政策对增长、进出口与内需的不利影响,而对于推高通货膨胀的影响并不大,同时对提高居民收入,缩小区域差距,扩大内需,加快经济发展方式转变等诸多方面都有促进作用,从而建议中国在“十二五”期间加快提高居民工资水平。
During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the renminbi is likely to maintain a sustained appreciation of the economy. Growth, inflation and domestic demand will all be under pressure. Therefore, it is absolutely necessary to formulate a policy of resolving the appreciation risk and ensuring the national economic security. Based on the dynamic 8-region CGE model and independently developed DMCGE-C policy simulation system, this paper analyzes three typical RMB appreciation scenarios and finds that even under the “worst case” that does not contain China’s import and export pricing power, And “up-wage” can also significantly hedge against the adverse effects of a single appreciation on growth, import and export and domestic demand, but have little impact on boosting inflation while at the same time improving the household income and narrowing the area The gap, the expansion of domestic demand, and the acceleration of the transformation of the mode of economic development. Therefore, it is suggested that China speed up raising the wage level of residents during the “Twelfth Five-year Plan” period.