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为预防煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故,研究其演化机理是十分必要的。在总结1950—2013年间发生的126起特别重大瓦斯爆炸事故的基础上,运用混沌理论分析瓦斯爆炸事故演化过程的混沌特性,建立瓦斯爆炸事故综合论事故模型,阐述瓦斯爆炸事故各因素的演化关系。结果表明:瓦斯爆炸事故演化过程具有蝴蝶效应、随机性、分形性等特征;瓦斯爆炸事故的发生,虽然从微观上看是人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态导致的,但从宏观上看是社会因素、组织因素、情境因素交叉耦合作用的结果。
To prevent coal mine gas explosion accident, it is necessary to study its evolution mechanism. On the basis of summarizing the 126 special gas explosion accidents that occurred during 1950-2013, the chaos theory was used to analyze the chaotic characteristics of the evolution process of gas explosion accidents. The comprehensive accident model of gas explosion accidents was established, and the evolutionary relationships between various factors of gas explosion accidents were expounded . The results show that the evolution process of gas explosion has the characteristics of butterfly, randomness and fractal. The occurrence of gas explosion accident is caused by the unsafe behavior of people and the unsafe state of matter at the microscopic level. However, See is the result of cross-coupling of social factors, organizational factors and situational factors.