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目的分析河南省2010年手足口病发病时间的聚集性,探讨集中度和圆分布法的应用。方法应用集中度结合圆分布法对河南省2010年手足口病发病时间数据进行分析。结果 2010年手足口病发病时间集中度M值为0.595。圆分布法平均角α对应日期即手足口病集中发病倾向时间为5月11日,5月11日前发病数占全年49.65%,5月11日及以后发病数占全年50.35%。发病时间的68.28%可信区间为3月11日～7月10日,此时间段实际发病数占全年病例总数的74.15%。平均角雷氏检验P﹤0.01。结论 2010年河南省手足口病发病具有较强季节性,流行高峰期为3上旬～7月上旬,集中发病倾向时间为5月中上旬。
Objective To analyze the aggregation of HFMD in Henan Province in 2010 and to explore the application of concentration and circular distribution method. Methods Concentration combined with circular distribution method in Henan Province in 2010 hand-foot-mouth disease incidence data analysis. Results The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2010, the concentration of M was 0.595. The average angle α of the circle distribution method is the trend of the incidence of HFMD on May 11 and May 65, accounting for 49.65% of the total number of the year. The incidence rate on May 11 and afterwards accounted for 50.35% of the whole year. The 68.28% confidence interval of onset time was from March 11 to July 10, accounting for 74.15% of the total number of cases in this period. Average angle Rayleigh test P <0.01. Conclusion The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Henan Province in 2010 is strong and seasonal. The epidemic peak period is from early 3 to early July, and the concentrated incidence tendency is mid to early May.