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长期以来,我国煤炭丰裕省份的产业结构具有突出的煤炭产业主导特征,煤炭价格变动对煤炭丰裕省份的产业布局有着引导作用。自2012年以来,我国煤炭价格呈现波动下滑趋势,煤炭丰裕省份亟需降低对煤炭产业的依赖,并加速进行产业转型升级以实现区域经济的可持续发展。为此,本文采用Corden和Neary的三部门模型,实证分析了煤价波动对我国煤炭资源丰裕省份产业结构演化的影响机制。结果发现,长时期内煤炭产业对其他产业的资本、科技创新和劳动力要素具有显著的挤出效应。
For a long time, the industrial structure of China’s rich provinces has prominent coal industry leading characteristics, changes in coal prices in coal-rich provinces of the industrial layout has a leading role. Since 2012, the price of coal in our country has fluctuated downward trend. Coal-rich provinces urgently need to reduce their dependence on the coal industry and speed up industrial restructuring and upgrading so as to achieve sustainable regional economic development. To this end, this paper uses Corden and Neary’s three-sector model to empirically analyze the impact of coal price fluctuations on the evolution of industrial structure in China’s coal-rich provinces. The result shows that the coal industry has a significant crowding-out effect on the capital, technological innovation and labor factors of other industries in a long period of time.