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采用IPCC碳排放系数、基于1997-2010年中国的其中30个省市的能源消费和人均GDP数据,分析了中国东、中、西三个地区碳强度的差异,并应用EKC模型和广义距估计(GMM)方法分别分析了三个区域碳强度与经济增长之间的关系,研究结果表明:三个地区碳强度均表现出较强的路径依赖性,当期碳强度受历史影响较大;东部地区碳强度与人均GDP之间呈N型曲线且已经跨过第一个拐点、预计2024年到达第二个拐点;中西部地区均呈倒U型曲线且均已跨过拐点,正处于碳强度与经济增长的负向发展阶段.
Based on the data of energy consumption and GDP per capita of 30 provinces and cities in China from 1997 to 2010, the paper uses the IPCC carbon emission coefficient to analyze the differences of carbon intensity in the three areas of eastern, central and western China, and applies EKC model and generalized distance estimation (GMM) were used to analyze the relationship between carbon intensity and economic growth in three regions respectively. The results show that the carbon intensity of all three regions shows a strong path dependence and the current carbon intensity is greatly affected by the history. The eastern region Carbon intensity and GDP per capita is N-shaped curve and has crossed the first inflection point, is expected to reach the second inflection point in 2024; the central and western regions are inverted U-shaped curve and have crossed the inflection point, is in carbon intensity and The negative development stage of economic growth.