在分析影响东北地区特别是黑龙江西部地区春油菜菌核病发病强度的气象因素的基础上，运用统计方法对历年春油菜菌核病发病数据进行分类，在初选出影响因子的前提下，利用多元统计分析中的逐步判别分析方法，对初选的因子进行再筛选，由此建立起各发病类别的判别模型，并对模型的判别效果进行检验，其判别正确率达９５％以上。 Based on the analysis of the meteorological factors influencing the intensity of S. sclerotiorum in Northeast China, especially in Heilongjiang Province, statistical methods were used to classify the incidence of sclerotinia sclerotiorum in the past years. Based on the preliminary selection of the influencing factors, Multivariate statistical analysis of stepwise discriminant analysis, the primary screening of the factors to be screened, thus establishing a discriminant model of the disease categories, and the discriminant effect of the model tested, the correct rate of more than 95%.