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为改善传统预测方法存在的缺陷,提出利用改进的灰色预测模型,选择经济性、快速性、方便性、舒适性、安全性作为广义费用指标,线性加权确定广义费用,根据MNL模型确定主要运输方式的客流分担率等方法,最后预测出铁路枢纽客运量,可为决策者提供规划依据。
In order to improve the shortcomings of the traditional forecasting methods, this paper proposes to use the improved gray forecasting model to select the economy, speediness, convenience, comfort and safety as the generalized cost index, linearly weighted to determine the generalized cost, and to determine the main modes of transportation according to the MNL model Passenger flow sharing rate and other methods, and finally predict the railway hub passenger volume, can provide decision-makers with planning basis.