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本文在总结国内外研究成果基础上,采用改进的典型解集模型和 AR(2)模型模拟宜昌站的径流序列,两种模拟成果的比较表明,AR(2)模型具有较好的统计特性。在模拟技术上先对宜昌径流作标准化正态处理,直接采用二阶自回归模型模拟出标准正态分布的旬、月径流序列,再通过概率转换为 P—Ⅲ分布的宜昌旬、月径流序列。这样不仅避免了由于采用纠偏公式所产生的误差,还可保证模拟序列不出现负值。经统计检验,模拟序列具有良好的统计特性及时序组合特性。模拟序列可作为三峡水库优化调度及检验优化调度成果的依据。采用模拟序列进行三峡水库水利计算及优化调度研究结果表明,宜昌实测105年径流序列具有一定的代表性,其中1946～1976年30年能较好地反映实测序列的各种主要统计特征,作为三峡可行性阶段水利计算的径流依据是合理可行的。研究结果还表明,三峡水库用常规方法进行的调度成果还有潜力可挖,需进一步研究优化调度,以提高三峡工程的综合效益。
On the basis of summarizing the research results at home and abroad, this paper uses the improved typical solution set model and the AR (2) model to simulate the runoff sequence of Yichang Station. The comparison between the two simulation results shows that the AR (2) model has good statistical properties. In the simulation technology, the normalized normal flow of Yichang runoff was first used to directly simulate the normal and normal monthly runoff and runoff sequences by the second-order autoregressive model. Then, the Yichang and Yichang runoff sequences with P-Ⅲ distribution were probabilistically transformed . This not only avoids the error due to the adoption of the correction formula, but also ensure that the simulated sequence does not appear negative. After statistical test, the simulation sequence has good statistical properties and timing characteristics. The simulation sequence can serve as the basis for optimizing the dispatching of the Three Gorges Reservoir and verifying the results of optimal scheduling. The simulated results of the Three Gorges Reservoir water conservancy calculation and optimal operation show that the measured runoff sequence of 105 years in Yichang has a certain representation. Among them, the 30 years from 1946 to 1976 can well reflect various major statistical characteristics of the measured sequence, It is reasonable and feasible to calculate the runoff basis of feasibility of water conservancy project. The results also show that there is still potential for the Three Gorges Reservoir to be dispatched by conventional methods. Further research on optimal scheduling is needed to improve the overall efficiency of the Three Gorges Project.