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卫生投资对区域经济增长存在着双向影响,所以普通的回归方法很难揭示出卫生投资对区域经济增长的真正影响。文章采用1998—2008年我国省、直辖市、自治区的相关数据,建立卫生投资与地区经济增长的PVAR模型,在此基础上分析卫生投资与地区经济增长的相互影响关系。研究发现卫生投资与经济增长之间在长期存在的较强的单向因果关系,在长期,卫生投资是经济增长的Granger原因;在短期,卫生投资与经济增长则存在着双向的因果关系。
Health investment has a two-way impact on regional economic growth. Therefore, it is very hard to find out the true impact of health investment on regional economic growth by ordinary regression methods. Based on the data from 1998 to 2008 in our province, municipality directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions, this paper establishes the PVAR model of health investment and regional economic growth. On this basis, it analyzes the interaction between health investment and regional economic growth. The study found that there is a strong one-way causal relationship between health investment and economic growth in the long run. In the long run, health investment is the Granger cause of economic growth. In the short run, there is a two-way causal relationship between health investment and economic growth.