论文部分内容阅读
本文尝试将财政分权、农业经济增长与城乡收入差距架构在统一的制度分析框架之下,进行多变量协整与向量误差修正模型(VECM)分析后发现:变量间具有显著的长期均衡关系与短期动态调节机制。城乡收入差距具有反向自身修正机制,但修正能力较弱。农业经济增长对城乡居民收入差距的影响呈现波动递减趋势。财政分权短期内会产生正向冲击,加剧城乡收入差距,但长期内会缓解差距,最后进行了VAR模型的静态与动态预测,这些发现对缩小城乡收入差距提供了有益启示与治理策略。
This paper attempts to analyze the structure of fiscal decentralization, agricultural economic growth and urban-rural income disparity in a unified institutional framework. After analyzing the VCOM model, we find that there is a significant long-term equilibrium relationship between variables Short-term dynamic adjustment mechanism. The income gap between urban and rural areas has its own self-correcting mechanism, but its ability to amend is weak. The impact of agricultural economic growth on the income gap between urban and rural residents shows a declining trend. In the short term, fiscal decentralization will have a positive impact and aggravate the income gap between urban and rural areas, but it will ease the gap in the long run. Finally, the static and dynamic forecasts of the VAR model are made. These findings provide useful enlightenment and governance strategies for narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas.