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我们应用生态-经济学模型,研究了波罗的海国家关于将每一个国家的营养物质排放总量减少一半的宣言。这一模型包括以国家为基础的减排污染物费用函数和描述磷和氮如何从一国流动到另一国的转移系数(由波罗的海水文学模型估算而得)。结果表明,就氮而言,目前的减排政策和成本-效益政策相比,减排费用非常高,而且各国受益不平衡。可以预料,那些减排边际成本高的国家,其执行上述减排协定以及对氮的减排投资的兴趣不会太大,这一结论已被我们的数据所证实。因此,我们建议并概要地提出一种联合执行政策,以使减排具有成本效益并鼓励进行减排投资。
Using ecological-economic models, we examined the Baltic states declaration that they should halve the total amount of nutrients that each country produces. This model includes the cost-reduction function of a country-based emission reduction and the transfer coefficient (estimated from the Baltic hydrological model) that describes how phosphorus and nitrogen flow from one country to another. The results show that in terms of nitrogen, the current emission reduction policies and cost-benefit policy, the cost of reducing emissions is very high, and the benefits are not balanced. It can be expected that those countries that have high marginal costs of emission reduction will not have much interest in implementing the above emission reduction agreement and their investment in nitrogen emission reduction. This conclusion has been confirmed by our data. Therefore, we propose and outline a joint implementation policy to make emission reductions cost-effective and encourage investment in emission reductions.