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全球气候变化被认为对波罗的海物理和生态特性有影响。通过全球海气循环模型(AOGCM)的结果统计或动态缩减规模法可以预测未来气候对某一地区的影响。本文用两种不同的波罗的海冰-海耦合模型来模拟现在和未来约100年的冰情。已使用大气气候模型进行了两次以10年为期限的模拟实验,一个实验说明了工业化前的气候状况(检验模拟),另一个是CO_2这种温室气体浓度增加150%时的全球气候变暖实验(方案模拟)。模型模拟真实地再现了当前气候学冰情和一年里的变化。两个模型模拟的波罗的海每年最大结冰范围是180～420×10~3km~2(检验模拟)和45～270×10~3km~2(方案模拟)。检验模拟和方案模拟中每年的最大冰厚分别是32～96cm和11～60cm。对比早期的预测,海冰仍是每年冬天在波的尼亚湾北部和芬兰湾最东部形成。总之,两个模型模拟得到的量的变化——像结冰范围和冰厚及其一年里的变化等——相对相似,这是值得注意的,因为这两个冰-海耦合模拟系统是独立研制的。这增加了预测波罗的海未来冰情的可靠性。
Global climate change is thought to have an impact on the physical and ecological properties of the Baltic Sea. The results of the Global Ocean-Atmospheric Circulation Model (AOGCM) can be used to predict the impact of future climate on an area by using the statistics of the results or the dynamic downsizing method. In this paper, two different Baltic ice-sea coupled models are used to simulate the current and future ice conditions about 100 years. Two 10-year simulation experiments have been conducted using the atmospheric-climate model, one showing pre-industrial climatic conditions (test simulations) and the other one showing the global warming of CO 2 when the GHG concentration is increased by 150% Experiment (scenario simulation). The model simulation truly reproduces the current climatic ice conditions and changes over the year. The two models simulate the maximum annual icing range of the Baltic Sea 180 ~ 420 × 10 ~ 3km ~ 2 (test simulation) and 45 ~ 270 × 10 ~ 3km ~ 2 (program simulation). The maximum ice thickness in the simulation and scheme simulations is 32 ~ 96cm and 11 ~ 60cm respectively. In contrast to earlier predictions, sea ice is still formed every winter in the northern part of the Gulf of Bothnia and the easternmost part of the Gulf of Finland. In summary, the relative simi- lar changes in the quantities simulated by the two models, such as the extent of icing and the ice thickness and their changes over the course of one year, are noteworthy because the two ice-sea coupling simulation systems are Independently developed. This adds predictability to the future of the Baltic Sea’s ice conditions.