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本文用H-P滤波法从我国经济的波动中分解出国内最终消费支出波动和进、出口货物贸易的波动,然后分析存货投资波动分别和二者的关系。结果发现,存货投资的波动也可以作为反映国际市场的波动对我国影响的重要参考;存货投资波动和国内最终消费支出波动出现背离,反映了我国经济在市场化方面还存在差距。在此基础上,本文提出解决产能过剩问题的建议。
In this paper, we use H-P filter method to analyze the fluctuation of domestic final consumption expenditure and the fluctuation of import and export goods trade from the fluctuation of our country’s economy, and then analyze the relationship between the fluctuation of inventory investment and the two respectively. The results show that the volatility of inventory investment can also be used as an important reference to reflect the impact of international market fluctuations on China. The fluctuation of inventory investment and domestic final consumption expenditure divergence, which shows that there is still a gap in the marketization of China’s economy. On this basis, this paper puts forward suggestions to solve the problem of overcapacity.