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论文采用潮河、白河流域1980—2013年间气象、水文资料,基于水热耦合模型方法,分析了潮河、白河流域水循环要素相应于不同土地覆被类型结构变化和水平衡的特征。通过对未来10 a流域下垫面状况的预估,预测了未来变化环境条件下流域径流量的变化情况。研究对预测潮白河流域水资源变化特征、确保密云水库水资源安全具有重要意义。研究结果显示:该模型在潮、白河流域适用;在现有下垫面资料的基础上,利用林地面积和草地流域下垫面参数相结合的方法,对潮河流域和白河流域未来下垫面的变化分别做出了11种预测情景,并在11种情景的基础上预测两流域的未来10 a径流变化,结果显示潮河流域的径流深在26.47~53.55mm范围内波动,而白河流域的径流深在17.57~41.53 mm范围内变动。研究的创新点为,在对未来下垫面状况预测的基础上,利用水热耦合模型预测流域未来的可能径流状况。
Based on the meteorological and hydrological data from 1980 to 2013 in the Chaohe and Baihe valleys and based on the hydrothermal coupling model, the paper analyzes the characteristics of water cycle elements in the Chaohe and Baihe valleys corresponding to the structural changes and water balance of different land cover types. Based on the prediction of underlying surface conditions in the 10-year drainage basin, the change of runoff under the changing environmental conditions in the future is predicted. Research is of great significance in predicting the characteristics of water resources in Chaobaihe River Basin and ensuring the safety of water resources in Miyun Reservoir. The results show that the model is suitable for use in the tidal and Baihe watersheds. Based on the available underlying surface data and the combination of the forestland area and the underlying surface parameters of the grassland watershed, the future underlying surface The results show that the runoff depth in the Chaohe River basin fluctuates within the range of 26.47 ~ 53.55mm, while in the Baihe River Basin Runoff depth varies from 17.57 to 41.53 mm. The innovation of this study is that based on the prediction of the future surface condition, the possible future runoff of the watershed is predicted by using the hydrothermal coupling model.