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为了更好地应对经济全球化背景下的能源价格问题,基于谱分析方法对国内外典型市场的石油、煤炭、电力、天然气四种主要能源价格的周期互动关系进行了初步研究与探讨,考虑到我国天然气与电力市场的发展现状,借鉴发展相对成熟的美国市场进行分析。结果表明,煤炭、电力、天然气三种能源市场价格均滞后于国际原油价格波动,其中煤炭价格波动略滞后于石油,而根据美国市场经验,天然气和电力价格波动周期均滞后于煤炭和石油市场价格。
In order to cope with the problem of energy price under the background of economic globalization, a preliminary study and discussion is made on the cyclical interaction between the prices of the four main energy sources of petroleum, coal, electricity and natural gas in the typical markets both at home and abroad based on the spectral analysis method. China’s natural gas and electricity market development status, learn from the development of a relatively mature US market analysis. The results show that the prices of coal, electricity and natural gas all lag behind those of the international crude oil market. The fluctuation of coal prices slightly lags behind that of oil. According to the experience of the U.S. market, both the natural gas and electricity price cycles lag behind the coal and oil market prices .