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钻孔瓦斯流量是影响矿井瓦斯抽放效果的一个重要因素,为准确预测钻孔瓦斯流量,优化矿井瓦斯抽放工艺,将灰色系统理论与马尔科夫链预测相结合,充分利用两者的优点,通过对瓦斯流量原始数据处理,瓦斯流量状态划分,构建马尔科夫转移概率矩阵及Matlab分析软件进行计算的方法,建立灰色马尔科夫预测模型。结合现场工程实例,将该预测模型和GM(1,1)预测模型进行比较分析,结果表明,利用灰色马尔科夫模型预测钻孔瓦斯流量,能够消除GM(1,1)模型本身固有偏差,预测值平均相对误差为2.16%,最大相对误差仅为5.40%,均优于GM(1,1)模型。
Gas flow in borehole is an important factor that affects mine gas drainage. In order to accurately predict gas flow in borehole and optimize mine gas drainage technology, the gray system theory is combined with Markov chain prediction to make full use of the advantages of the two , A gray Markov forecasting model is established through the method of calculating the raw data of gas flow, dividing the flow of gas, constructing Markov transition probability matrix and Matlab software. According to the field engineering example, the forecasting model is compared with the GM (1,1) forecasting model. The results show that using the gray Markov model to predict the gas flow in the borehole can eliminate the inherent deviation of the GM (1,1) model, The average relative error of prediction is 2.16%, the maximum relative error is only 5.40%, which is better than GM (1,1) model.