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中国高M2/GDP一直是学术界争论的焦点。本文基于协整理论,以误差修正模型把我国GDP与M2关系分解为长期均衡关系与短期关系,并根据“十三五”期间GDP不低于6.5%目标,测算出我国M2长期均衡供应量与短期供给量,进而估算出均衡与短期M2/GDP。结果显示,“十三五”期间M2/GDP值还继续攀升,严重偏离均衡值,将给我国带来通货膨胀的风险。为此,国家在“十三五”期间应有效实施稳健的货币政策,适度控制M2规模,更主要的是盘活M2存量,提高M2对GDP的增长效率,化解潜在风险。
China’s high M2 / GDP has been the focus of academic debate. Based on the cointegration theory, this paper decomposes the relationship between GDP and M2 in our country into a long-term equilibrium relationship and a short-term relationship based on the cointegration theory. According to the target of “not less than 6.5% of GDP during the” Thirteen-Five “period, we calculate the long- Volume and short-term supply, and then estimate the equilibrium and short-term M2 / GDP. The results show that during the ”13th Five-Year Plan“ period, the M2 / GDP value will continue to rise and seriously deviate from the equilibrium value will bring the risk of inflation to our country. Therefore, during the ”13th Five-Year Plan" period, the state should effectively implement a prudent monetary policy and moderately control the scale of M2. More importantly, the State should revitalize its stock of M2 and raise the efficiency of M2 in increasing GDP so as to resolve potential risks.