本文在总结大量文献基础上,对特尔斐和其他意见征集方法的优缺点和适用范围作了评述。提出了有对话步骤的新特尔斐方法(简称对话特尔斐)介绍了这种方法在“办公自动化对职员就业影响”的预测中的应用.结论认为,必须根据每一个要预测的问题的特殊性质来选择专家意见征集方法,提出了选择时应考虑的六个方面的因素。 Based on a large amount of literature, this article reviews the advantages and disadvantages of Delphi and other methods of soliciting opinions and their applicability. The New Delphi Method with Dialogues (Dialogue, Delphi) is presented to describe the application of this method in the prediction of “the impact of office automation on the employment of staff.” The conclusion is that it must be based on every problem to be predicted The special nature of the selection of expert opinion collection methods, put forward the choice of six factors should be considered.