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随着我国石油企业“走出去”程度不断加强,石油企业决策者也面临一系列的风险,做好经济风险分析,是规避损失的有效手段。本文根据海外投资项目特点,选取蒙特卡罗模拟法和决策树分析法作为经济风险分析的主要方法,进而在系统分析海外投资项目经济风险因素的基础上,结合某海外投资项目实例,综合运用蒙特卡罗模拟法和决策树分析法,对经济风险进行定量分析,这两种方法所得结论基本一致,该项目的风险程度属于低风险。最后有针对性的提出应对海外投资项目经济风险的对策建议。
As China’s oil companies “going out ” the degree of continuous strengthening, oil companies are also facing a series of risks for decision-makers, good economic risk analysis is an effective way to avoid losses. Based on the characteristics of overseas investment projects, Monte Carlo simulation method and decision tree analysis method are selected as the main methods of economic risk analysis. Based on the systematic analysis of the economic risk factors of overseas investment projects, combined with an example of an overseas investment project, Carlo simulation and decision tree analysis, the quantitative analysis of economic risk, the conclusions of the two methods are basically the same, the risk level of the project belongs to low risk. Finally, it puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions on how to deal with the economic risks of overseas investment projects.