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本文对生猪价格和玉米价格之间的动态关系进行了研究,发现两者呈正相关关系,玉米价格是生猪价格变化的Granger原因。E-G协整检验表明,生猪价格和玉米价格存在线性协整关系,Enders-Siklos检验表明,两者之间存在有门限的惯性长期均衡关系,猪粮价差减少时的调整速度比猪粮价差增加时的调整速度快。价值规律的作用、政府的不同应对措施和生猪生产过程的特点等是这些现象产生的主要原因。最后,文章提出改进生猪市场价格统一信息平台、普及相关信息到基层猪农和广大消费者,以形成良好的市场预期;在影响肉价及引导猪农决策的时候充分考虑肉价、粮价之间的非对称调整等建议。
This paper studies the dynamic relationship between hog price and corn price and finds that there is a positive correlation between them. The price of corn is the Granger cause of hog price change. EG cointegration test showed that there was a linear cointegration relationship between hog price and corn price. Enders-Siklos test showed that there was a threshold long-term equilibrium relationship between the two. The adjustment speed of pig food price decrease was faster than that of pig food price Increase when the adjustment speed. The main reason for these phenomena is the role of the law of value, the different government responses and the characteristics of the pig production process. Finally, the paper puts forward a unified information platform to improve the market price of live pigs and popularize relevant information to the grassroots pig farmers and consumers in order to form a good market expectation. In the process of influencing the price of meat and guiding the decision-making of pig farmers, full consideration should be given to the price of meat, Asymmetric adjustment between the recommendations.