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为预报网箱养殖大黄鱼细菌性疾病的发生,以舟山市网箱养殖大黄鱼为研究对象,根据2001—2008年间舟山市网箱养殖大黄鱼发病情况的监测数据和各采样点海洋环境因子的测定数据,应用灰色系统理论探索了网箱养殖大黄鱼细菌性疾病的发生发展规律及其与环境因子的关系;建立了灰色预报模型GM(1,1)和GM(1,N),预报网箱养殖大黄鱼细菌性疾病的发生时间和发病率。灰色关联分析结果表明,大黄鱼细菌性疾病的发病率与养殖水域的环境因子都有不同程度的关联;把水温、悬浮物、无机氮和COD选作先行指标,用这些因子的不同组合建立了GM(1,5)、GM(1,4)和GM(1,3)模型,比较这些模型的平均相对误差,由无机氮和COD构成的GM(1,3)模型平均相对误差最小,为5.304%;用GM(1,1)模型对大规模细菌性疾病发生的时间进行了预测,预测结果与实际情况基本一致。
In order to forecast the occurrence of bacterial diseases of large yellow croaker cultured in cage, a case study was conducted on the large-sized yellow croaker in Zhoushan City. According to the monitoring data of the incidence of large-crested yellow croaker in Zhoushan City during 2001-2008 and the marine environmental factors The gray system theory was used to explore the occurrence and development of bacterial diseases in large cage yellow croaker and its relationship with environmental factors. The gray forecasting models GM (1,1), GM (1, N), forecasting net Occurrence and incidence of bacterial diseases in large-box breeding of large yellow croaker. Gray correlation analysis showed that the incidence of bacterial diseases in large yellow croaker was correlated with the environmental factors in the aquaculture waters. Water temperature, suspended solids, inorganic nitrogen and COD were selected as the leading indicators and different combinations of these factors were established GM (1, 5), GM (1, 4) and GM (1, 3) models. The average relative errors of these models were compared. The average relative error of GM (1,3) 5.304%. The GM (1,1) model was used to predict the time of large-scale bacterial diseases, and the prediction results are in good agreement with the actual situation.