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自1960年代以来,干旱内陆流域土地利用格局发生了以耕地持续扩张和天然林草地不断减少的剧烈变化,分析流域土地利用变化对水文过程的影响对于流域管理十分重要.以河西走廊中部的马营河流域为例,选择年径流量、基流量、最大洪峰流量以及流域典型的春季和秋季汛期流量为径流过程参量,基于流域降水和径流各参量的变化趋势分析和显著的统计回归关系分析,区别了气候变化对径流过程的影响.利用1956年以来4期土地利用变化数据,分析了耕地土地利用和径流过程各参量之间的定量关系,建立了基于降水和耕地面积两种因素的径流过程统计模拟模型,研究结果表明,1967年以来,由于流域土地利用变化,尤其是上游林草地大规模转为耕地,使流域年均径流量减少28.12%,基流量减少35.32%,最大洪峰流量减少35.77%,春季和秋季的平均季节流量分别减少了36.05%和24.87%,其中耕地面积扩张对年径流量的影响贡献率在77%~80%,对春季流量的影响贡献率在73%~80%,对基流量的影响贡献率在62%~65%之间,流域冬春季节的持续升温也对春季径流减少具有一定影响;合理规划流域土地利用格局,对于流域水资源可持续利用河流域可持续发展具有重要意义.
Since the 1960s, the land use pattern of arid inland river basin has undergone dramatic changes due to the continuous expansion of arable land and the declining natural forest and grassland. Analyzing the impact of land use change on hydrological processes is very important for watershed management. Taking Ying River basin as an example, the annual runoff, base flow, maximum flood peak flow and the typical spring and autumn flood season runoff are selected as the runoff process parameters. Based on the trend analysis of precipitation and runoff parameters and significant statistical regression analysis, The difference between climate change and runoff process is analyzed.Using the data of four land use changes since 1956, the quantitative relationship between the land use and runoff process parameters of cultivated land is analyzed and the runoff process based on two factors of precipitation and cultivated land area is established The results show that, since 1967, due to the change of land use in the basin, especially the large-scale conversion of forest and grassland into cultivated land, the average annual runoff of the basin has been reduced by 28.12%, the base flow decreased by 35.32% and the maximum peak discharge decreased by 35.77 %, The average seasonal flow in spring and autumn decreased by 36.05% and 24.87% respectively, of which The contribution of cultivated land expansion to annual runoff is in the range of 77% -80%, contribution to spring flow is 73% -80%, and contribution to base flow is between 62% -65% The continuous warming in spring also has a certain impact on the reduction of spring runoff; rational planning of land use patterns in watersheds is of great significance to the sustainable utilization of water resources in river basins.