稻瘟病是我县早稻的主要病害,对早稻稻瘟病发生程度预测多采用中短期预测预报。笔者采用灾变预测法对我县早稻稻瘟病超长期预测进行了探讨。据我县1975—1985年早稻稻瘟病发生资料,将发生程度分为偏轻年(A)及偏重年(B)。 Rice blast is the main disease of early rice in our county, and the prediction of the occurrence of rice blast in early rice mostly uses the short-term forecast. The author uses catastrophe prediction method to investigate the super long-term prediction of rice blast in our county. According to the data of early blast rice blast in our county from 1975 to 1985, the degree of occurrence was divided into partial light years (A) and partial year (B).