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使用Chinagem模型计算了我国2010年6月份出口退税率下调对我国经济以及各行业的影响.研究表明,此次调整导致我国GDP实际减小0.016%,投资、出口与进口分别下降0.075%、0.041%与0.116%,居民消费和政府消费上升0.005%,就业下降0.016%,“两高一资”行业受挫较大.同时,各个行业实施出口退税时,对该行业的影响表现为:将直接导致行业出口价格上升,出口量下降,从而国内销售部分增加;由于国内供给增加,进口有所减少;而总产出的变化则由于行业不同而呈现出不同的变化.与此同时,各个行业出口退税率的变化将导致上游行业产出下降,下游行业产出增长.
The Chinagem model was used to calculate the impact of the reduction of export tax rebate rate on China’s economy and various industries in China in June 2010. The study shows that this adjustment resulted in a real reduction of 0.016% of China’s GDP while investment, exports and imports decreased by 0.075% and 0.041% And 0.116%, respectively, while household consumption and government consumption increased by 0.005% and employment fell by 0.016%. In the meantime, the impact of the industry on export tax rebates for various industries is as follows: Led to an increase in the export price of the industry and a decrease in the export volume, which in turn led to an increase in the domestic sales; a decrease in imports due to the increase in domestic supply; and a change in the total output, which varied according to the industry. At the same time, Changes in tax rebate rates will lead to lower output in the upstream industries and lower output in the downstream industries.