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消费信贷对经济增长有两方面重要影响:一是作为扩大居民消费的长效机制,有利于经济增长,同时会引致汽车等部分产行业的投资增加和效率改善;二是可能会降低部分产行业的资金供给,并通过资金的供求错配而抑制部分产行业的规模扩张。本文利用2007-2015年数据,以VECM模型为基础,对消费信贷与经济增长关系进行了实证分析。分析结果表明:消费信贷的扩张在中长期内会促进投资和消费的增长,但同时必须谨防短期内消费信贷过热对工业部门带来的挤出效应。
Consumer credit has two major impacts on economic growth. First, as a long-term mechanism for expanding consumer spending, it will be conducive to economic growth and at the same time will lead to increased investment and efficiency in some industries such as automobiles. Second, it may lower the output value of some of the industry Of the supply of funds, and through the mismatch of supply and demand funds to curb the expansion of some industries scale. Based on the VECM model, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between consumer credit and economic growth from 2007-2015 data. The analysis shows that the expansion of consumer credit will promote the growth of investment and consumption in the medium to long term, but at the same time, we must beware of the crowding-out effect on the industrial sector caused by overheating of consumer credit in the short term.