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本文梳理了20世纪80年代以来有关财政政策非凯恩斯效应的经典文献,试图探讨与总结其中一些趋势性、方向性的问题。在理论方面,财政政策通过消费和投资两种渠道发生非凯恩斯效应,是因为存在预期效应、财富效应和替代效应。在实证研究方面,财政调整时期的测度与定义是非凯恩斯效应研究的两大难题,迄今为止,在测度方法和定义标准等具体问题上未取得任何突破性进展或达成共识;另外,结构VAR文献主要是通过实证检验财政支出乘数的符号和大小来识别非凯恩斯效应。从经验研究的总体结果来看,支持投资非凯恩斯效应的文献似乎更多,因此,也被国外理论界认为是以后研究财政政策非凯恩斯效应最有可能取得突破的领域。
This paper reviews the classic literature on the non-Keynesian effect of fiscal policy since the 1980s, and attempts to explore and summarize some of the trends and directions. In theory, the non-Keynesian effect of fiscal policy through both consumption and investment channels is due to the expected effect, wealth effect and substitution effect. In the aspect of empirical research, the measurement and definition of fiscal adjustment period are two major problems in non-Keynesian research. So far, no breakthrough progress or consensus has been reached on specific issues such as measurement methods and standard definition. In addition, Is to identify the non-Keynesian effect by examining the sign and size of the fiscal expenditure multiplier. From the overall results of empirical studies, there appears to be more literature supporting the non-Keynesian investment, and therefore it is also considered by foreign theoretical circles as the most probable breakthrough area for studying the non-Keynesian effect of fiscal policy in the future.