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研究目的:系统回顾大规模伤亡事件(MCI)经典研究范式,结合2008年汶川地震和2014年杭州7·5公交车起火事件,优化MCI应对的研究范式。创新要点:需求激增理论是MCI应对实时评估的显著进步,结合2008年汶川地震和2014年杭州7·5公交车起火事件,我们发现MCI应对评估中一个非常重要的脆弱性因素被忽略。研究方法:采用关键词和医学主题词(大规模伤亡事件、MCI、研究方法、汶川、地震、研究范式、激增科学、激增、激增应对能力和脆弱性等),通过检索数据库Pub Med、EMBASE、中国万方及中国生物医学(CBM)的相关研究资料库,进行理论的回顾性分析和结合实际案例的分析。重要结论:除需求激增理论中的激增和激增应对能力这二个基本维度外,应引入第三个维度脆弱性,形成更为全面和客观的三个互为关联维度构建MCI的新研究范式,突破MCI传统研究范式的局限性。
Objectives: To systematically review the classic research paradigm of mass casualty (MCI), and to optimize the research paradigm of MCI by combining the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2014 Hangzhou bus fire incident. Innovative Points: The surge in demand theory is a significant improvement on MCI’s response to real-time assessment. Combined with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2014 Hangzhou bus fire incident, we found that a very important vulnerability factor in the MCI response assessment was neglected. Research methods: By using keywords and medical keywords (mass casualties, MCI, research methods, Wenchuan, earthquakes, research paradigms, surge science, surge, surge response capacity and vulnerability, etc.) China Wanfang and China Biomedicine (CBM) related research database, a theoretical retrospective analysis and the actual case analysis. Important Conclusions: In addition to the two basic dimensions of surge and surge capacity in demand surge theory, the third dimension vulnerability should be introduced to form a new and more comprehensive and objective new research paradigm for constructing MCI based on each other. Break through the limitations of MCI’s traditional research paradigm.