论文部分内容阅读
应用全国、31个省、6个典型地区和16个典型县的数据对科技进步增产的“多年平均产量移动模型”进行了系统性的验证和讨论。研究结果如下:(1)定义了用相邻10年平均单产之差表示科技进步对单产的贡献及其趋势,结论是科技进步是单产增加的主要驱动力;(2)分别定义了用每年单产与5、10、20年平均单产对比关系的概率作为短、中、长期单产稳定性的指标;稳定性研究结果表明国家级大于省级、省级大于地区级、地区级大于县级,不同省、不同地区、不同县之间稳定性差别比较大,这与境内气候的互补性和农田抗御自然灾害的能力有关;(3)就全国而言,越是经济发达的地区科技进步增产加速的时间越早;发达地区单产存在增加-下降-回升阶段,下降原因是经济快速发展初期高产农田被大量占用和(或)蔬菜、水果面积大量增加,回升原因是科技进步持续作用于中、低产田而使其单产得到稳步提高。
This paper systematically verifies and discusses the “multi-year average yield movement model” for increasing scientific and technological progress with the data of the whole country, 31 provinces, 6 typical regions and 16 typical counties. The results are as follows: (1) It is defined that the contribution of scientific and technological progress to yield and its trend are represented by the difference of 10-year average yield between adjacent areas. The conclusion is that scientific and technological progress is the main driving force for the increase of yield. (2) And the average yield of 5, 10, 20 years as an indicator of short, medium and long-term yield stability; stability research results show that the national level is greater than the provincial level, the provincial level is greater than the regional level, the regional level is greater than the county level, different provinces . The differences in stability between different regions and counties are relatively large, which is related to the complementarity of the domestic climate and the capability of farmland to resist natural disasters. (3) For the whole country, the more advanced the scientific and technological progress in the economically developed areas is, the faster the production increases. The earlier the rate of increase was, the earlier the rate of increase in yield in developed areas was. The reason for the decrease was due to the high occupancy of high-yielding farmland and / or large increase in the area of vegetables and fruit in the early stage of rapid economic development. So that its yield has been steadily increased.