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“十二五”期间中国人身险保费收入增长速度情况是当前全行业共同关注的重大课题。2005年1月至2010年6月114个观察点数据显示,中国人身险保费收入呈现较强的季节性和趋势性的特征,适用于时间序列数据预测方法进行分析。通过使用Holt-Winters模型,预测“十二五”期间中国人身险保费收入平均增速为9.93%—18.43%,并存在大起大落的风险。
The growth rate of China’s personal insurance premium income during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is a major issue that the entire industry is currently paying attention to. Data from 114 observation points from January 2005 to June 2010 show that the life insurance premium income in China is characterized by strong seasonal and trendy characteristics and is suitable for the analysis of time series data forecasting methods. By using the Holt-Winters model, it is predicted that the average growth rate of China’s life insurance premium income will be 9.93% -18.43% during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, and there is a risk of big ups and downs.