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很多研究试图解释中国统计数据的虚增问题,但是研究结果与官方数据差异不大,因此认为中国经济的高速增长是符合实际的。本文认为,中国数据虚增的问题在于价格水平被低估。假定中国1997年来税制无根本性变动,本文通过研究税收变化与物价关系发现中国物价被低估,这说明中国真实产出被高估。物价高涨造成了财政收入与名义产出一致这一假象以及真实实际收入提高缓慢这一现实,因为财政收入与名义产出相关,而真实收入与实际产出相关。这点说明中国对产出的虚增已经从传统上直接虚报产出演变为出于“价格维稳”目的、通过低估价格而虚增实际产出,从而导致官方真实产出数据与现实脱节。
Many studies attempt to explain the inflated problem of China's statistics, but the results are not much different from the official data. Therefore, it is considered that the rapid economic growth in China is in line with the actual situation. This paper argues that the problem with the inflated Chinese data is that the price level is underestimated. Assuming that there is no fundamental change in China's tax system since 1997, this paper finds that China's prices are underestimated by studying the relationship between tax changes and prices. This shows that China's real output is overvalued. High inflation has led to the illusion that fiscal revenue is in line with nominal output and the fact that real real income rises slowly because fiscal revenue is related to nominal output and real income is correlated with real output. This shows that the inflated Chinese output has evolved from the traditional direct output of falsehood to the purpose of “maintaining price stability,” inflating the actual output by underestimating the price, thus leaving the official real output data out of touch with reality .