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疟疾风险评估是疟疾管理的重要环节。本研究旨在界定疟疾风险的概念,以不确定性、脆弱性理论为基础,从疟疾发生的可能性和脆弱性2个维度构建疟疾消除后的风险评估概念框架。一个地区不具备疟疾发生的可能性且疟防系统不存在脆弱性问题,可视为永久性的无疟疾风险状态;只有疟疾风险发生的可能性较大和系统脆弱性较大时,疟疾风险才会存在;两者任何一方取值很低时,疟疾风险值很低,但风险会随着低值一方取值增加而增加。因此应以疟疾风险评估概念框架为基础,进而确立疟疾风险评估指标框架,包括传染源、传播媒介风险、人群暴露风险3个维度的可能性指标框架及经济脆弱性、社会脆弱性、政治脆弱性、卫生系统脆弱性和敏感性5个维度的脆弱性指标框架,最终确立疟疾风险评估的相关指标。
Malaria risk assessment is an important part of malaria management. The purpose of this study is to define the concept of malaria risk. Based on the theory of uncertainty and vulnerability, a conceptual framework for post-malaria risk assessment is constructed from the two dimensions of likelihood and vulnerability of malaria. The absence of the possibility of malaria in one region and the absence of vulnerability of the malaria prevention system can be considered as a permanent malaria-free risk state; malaria risk will only be met if malaria risk is more likely and system vulnerabilities greater There is a low value for either malaria or malaria, but the risk increases as the value of the low one increases. Therefore, the conceptual framework of malaria risk assessment should be taken as the basis to establish the indicator framework of malaria risk assessment indicators, including the three dimensions of infection source, vector risk and population exposure risk, as well as the economic vulnerability, social vulnerability and political vulnerability , Vulnerability and sensitivity of the health system in five dimensions of vulnerability indicators, and ultimately establish the relevant indicators of malaria risk assessment.