随着水产养殖旺季的来临,菜粕的需求量将持续递增,但菜粕的供给量难以跟上需求增速,加之相关蛋白原料豆粕和酒糟蛋白饲料供应增幅不大,对菜粕的替代量有限,二、三季度菜粕整体供应或趋于紧平衡,而国产菜粕成本高昂也将难以支撑菜粕期价,后期菜粕价格将易涨难跌。首先,国产菜粕由于菜籽产量逐年下滑,供给数量也逐年递减,目前国产菜粕只能勉强保证内陆产区的需求,再没有多余的量可以供应沿海地区,另一方面近年棉粕的供应形势也每况愈下,一般在每年的5月份 With the advent of the aquaculture season, the demand for rapeseed meal will continue to increase, but the supply of rapeseed meal is difficult to keep up with the demand growth. In addition, the relative increase of protein feedstocks for soybean meal and stillage protein feedstock is not significant. The replacement of rapeseed meal Limited, second and third quarters of rapeseed overall supply or tends to be tight balance, and high cost of domestic rapeseed meal will also be difficult to sustain rapeseed period price, later rapeseed meal prices will easily rise up hard to fall. First of all, the domestic production of rapeseed as the annual decline in rapeseed production, the supply has also decreased year by year, the current domestic rapeseed can barely guarantee the demand of the inland areas, there is no excess amount of supply of coastal areas, on the other hand in recent years cottonseed meal The supply situation is also deteriorating, generally in May of each year