采用2005、2008、2011年的《中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查》项目,运用组基轨迹模型考察了存活、死亡、失访老年人的失能轨迹以及总体老年人的失能轨迹的性别、城乡、队列差异。存活、死亡、失访老人的失能轨迹存在明显的差异,死亡老人起点更高、发展更迅速;女性老人、城市老人更倾向于走上自理能力不健全的轨迹;越来越多的老年人的自理状况是完善的,但失能的老年人其自理状况较之前恶化。 Based on the “China Follow-up Survey of Elderly Health Factors” in 2005, 2008 and 2011, the group-based trajectory model was used to investigate the disability trajectories of survivors, deaths and lost-aged seniors as well as the gender, urban-rural Cohort differences. There are obvious differences in the path of incapacity of survivors, deaths, and lost-time seniors. The elderly have a higher starting point and developed more rapidly. Female and urban seniors are more likely to take the path of poor self-care ability. More and more seniors Self-care status is perfect, but disabled self-care status worsened than before.