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近期,由交通银行《新金融》期刊主办的2010年交银国际经济圆桌会议在北京召开。来自中国人民银行、国家外汇管理局、北京大学、中国人民大学、中国对外经贸大学、外交学院、上海财经大学的专家学者就“国际经济再平衡与我国的战略选择”这一主题展开了热烈而深入的讨论。交通银行首席经济学家连平教授在论坛上作了题为《危机治理步履蹒跚全球复苏仍为可期》的主旨报告(全文另发)。《新金融》期刊副主编王辰博士主持了圆桌会议。与会专家认为,国际经济再平衡过程中,我国经济远虑近忧兼具:短期内通胀压力较大,资产价格泡沫风险更应警惕;经济结构调整效果不明显,未来劳动力供给或由过剩转向不足。总体而言,我国经济“二次探底”可能性不大,我国经济当前的持续强劲复苏以及未来的持续高速增长,需要同时维护微观层面的良好经济前景和宏观层面的积极经济政策。与管理通货膨胀预期相比,管理经济景气预期或许更为迫切和重要。针对人民币汇率问题的症结及其定位策略,专家指出人民币问题本身没有想象中复杂,不能因为金融危机以及外部压力而停止人民币汇率形成机制市场化方向改革的脚步,只有在国际市场上获得定价权和在国内推进利率市场化,才能摆脱人民币对内贬值和对外升值的困境。此外,与会专家还建议现阶段我国应居安思危,积极管理跨境资本流动冲击风险,并把握时机大力发展低碳经济。
Recently, the 2010 BOCOM International Economic Roundtable hosted by Bank of Communications “New Finance” was held in Beijing. Experts and scholars from the People’s Bank of China, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Peking University, Renmin University of China, China University of Foreign Studies, China Foreign Affairs University and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics held a talk on the theme of “international economic rebalancing and China’s strategic choice” Warm and in-depth discussion. Prof. Lianping, Chief Economist of Bank of Communications, delivered a keynote speech entitled “Crisis Management, Still Wrecking the Global Recovery is Possible.” (Full text is available separately) at the forum. Dr. Wang Chen, associate editor of New Finance Journal, presided over the round table. Experts at the meeting said that in the process of rebalancing the international economy, the long-term concerns of both our economy and the economy are both exacerbated by the fact that inflationary pressures in the short term are greater and the risk of asset price bubbles should be more vigilant. Economic restructuring is not effective and the supply of labor or over-supply of labor will be insufficient in the future. In sum, China’s economy is not likely to have a “second dip”. The current sustained and strong recovery of our economy and the sustained rapid growth in the future require the maintenance of both a sound economic outlook at the micro level and a positive economic policy at the macro level. Managing economic expectations may be more pressing and important than managing inflation expectations. In view of the crux of the RMB exchange rate issue and its positioning strategy, experts point out that the RMB issue itself is not complicated in its imagination and can not stop the reform of the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism because of the financial crisis and external pressure. Only in the international market can pricing power and In the domestic market to promote interest rates, in order to get rid of the devaluation of the renminbi and foreign plight. In addition, participating experts also suggested that at this stage our country should be vigilant in peace time, and actively manage the risk of cross-border capital flows and seize the opportunity to vigorously develop low-carbon economy.